The Singapore Economy: An Econometric Perspective - download pdf or read online

By Tilak Abeysinghe

ISBN-10: 0203011244

ISBN-13: 9780203011249

ISBN-10: 0415418216

ISBN-13: 9780415418218

Singapore's extraordinary transformation from 3rd international to First global prestige has been of serious curiosity to economists worldwide but there was little quantitative study performed on its financial system and associations. This leading edge new examine monograph fills the lacunae by way of providing the Singapore economic system via a macroeconometric version and laying the rules for additional examine.

Using formal econometric research and novel modelling concepts, Abeysinghe and Choy supply infrequent insights into how the Singapore financial system works. all the significant chapters discusses the consequences of the empirical findings for present coverage and a complete bankruptcy has been dedicated to macroeconomic coverage simulations.

This publication is a special creation to the Singapore economic climate and will be of curiosity to econometric modellers and coverage makers in Singapore in addition to complicated undergraduates and graduate researchers drawn to modelling small open economies.

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Example text

However, official statistics suggest that if this had any role to play at all in explaining the APC’s secular decline, it cannot extend beyond the mid-1980s, when the ratio of the working-age population to the total population stabilized at 70%. Yet the APC has continued its precipitous fall during the decade of the 1990s. 3 In view of Kuznets’ findings, however, this argument holds water only if we restrict the time period to the “short run”. Regardless of how one defines that, we think the 40 years over which the APC has been halved in Singapore is too long an interval to satisfy the requirement.

We have thus far concentrated on modelling the long-term behaviour of private consumption expenditures in Singapore, but do short-run fluctuations in consumption also respond to the long-run factors that are found to be important? 5 The APC and key ratios. 59) In this regression, we tried the total loans variable and its components (CPF housing withdrawals and loans to individuals) separately, but only CPF housing withdrawals turned out to be statistically significant. Unlike consumption functions estimated for most countries, Singapore’s consumption expenditure is subject to more short-term variation as reflected by the negative coefficient on ln Ct−1 .

Exact or approximate F-test results are reported, except for the normality test where the asymptotic χ 2 value is shown. As emphasized above, parameter invariance is a very important requirement for employing a model in policy analysis. A structural break is a serious matter because it implies that the substantive conclusions about the economy being modelled are vitiated. Hence, we also carry out a formal test of parameter stability in the form of the Chow test of forecast performance in the post-sample period from 2001 to 2003.

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The Singapore Economy: An Econometric Perspective by Tilak Abeysinghe

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