Download e-book for iPad: Extreme Financial Risks: From Dependence to Risk Management by Yannick Malevergne, Didier Sornette

By Yannick Malevergne, Didier Sornette

ISBN-10: 354027264X

ISBN-13: 9783540272649

ISBN-10: 3540272666

ISBN-13: 9783540272663

Portfolio research and optimization, including the linked hazard overview and administration, require wisdom of the most probably distributions of returns at assorted time scales and insights into the character and houses of dependences among the various assets.

This e-book bargains an unique and thorough remedy of those domain names, focusing quite often at the suggestions and instruments that stay legitimate for big and severe cost strikes. powerful emphasis is put on the speculation of copulas and their empirical trying out and calibration, simply because they give intrinsic and entire measures of dependences.

Extreme monetary dangers could be worthwhile to:

students searching for a normal and in-depth creation to the sphere;

financial engineers, economists, econometricians, actuarial execs;

researchers and mathematicians trying to find a synoptic view evaluating the professionals and cons of other modelling suggestions; and

quantitative practitioners for the insights provided at the subtleties and the numerous dimensional parts of either danger and dependence.

In toto, the content material of this booklet can be beneficial to a broader clinical neighborhood attracted to quantifying the complexity of many common and synthetic strategies within which a starting to be emphasis is at the function and value of maximum phenomena.

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Extra resources for Extreme Financial Risks: From Dependence to Risk Management

Example text

By consistent model is meant a model that accounts for the complex time structure of asset returns. (FI)-GARCH [31], α-ARCH [132], multifractal2 models [39, 341] or any other stochastic volatility model [232, 473] can be used for this purpose, but none of them is yet universally recognized since they do not rely on well-established founding of economic principles. As a consequence, one is exposed to model error: for instance, a simple GARCH model still underestimates the tail risks since it underestimates the long-range dependence of the volatility.

Three fields of research highlight this idea and suggest a reconciliation, while enlarging significantly the perspective of the EMH. Collective Phenomena in Statistical Physics In statistical physics, the fight between order (through the interaction between elementary constituents of matter) and disorder (modeled by thermal fluctuations) gives rise to the spontaneous occurrence of “spontaneous symmetry breaking” also called phase transitions in this context [451]. The understanding of the large-scale organization as well as the sudden macroscopic changes of organization due to small variations of a control parameter has led to powerful concepts such as “emergence” [9]: the macroscopic organization has many properties not shared by its constituents.

In other words, explanatory factors emerge endogenously. Here, we follow [337] to show that the existence of factors have a natural bottom-up explanation: they can be seen to result from a collective effect of the assets, similar to the emergence of a macroscopic self-organization of interacting microscopic constituents. To show this, we unravel the origin of the large eigenvalues of large covariance and correlation matrices and provide a complete understanding of the coexistence of features resembling properties of random matrices and of large “anomalous” eigenvalues.

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Extreme Financial Risks: From Dependence to Risk Management by Yannick Malevergne, Didier Sornette

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