Dana Kelly, Curtis Smith's Bayesian inference for probabilistic risk assessment : a PDF

By Dana Kelly, Curtis Smith

ISBN-10: 1849961867

ISBN-13: 9781849961868

ISBN-10: 1849961875

ISBN-13: 9781849961875

Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic hazard Assessment presents a Bayesian starting place for framing probabilistic difficulties and appearing inference on those difficulties. Inference within the ebook employs a contemporary computational strategy often called Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The MCMC strategy can be carried out utilizing custom-written exercises or present common objective advertisement or open-source software. This publication makes use of an open-source application known as OpenBUGS (commonly known as WinBUGS) to unravel the inference difficulties which are described. A strong function of OpenBUGS is its automated choice of a suitable MCMC sampling scheme for a given challenge. The authors supply research “building blocks” that may be changed, mixed, or used as-is to unravel numerous not easy problems.

The MCMC strategy used is applied through textual scripts just like a macro-type programming language. Accompanying such a lot scripts is a graphical Bayesian community illustrating the weather of the script and the general inference challenge being solved. Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic chance review also covers the real subject matters of MCMC convergence and Bayesian version checking.

Bayesian Inference for Probabilistic chance Assessment is geared toward scientists and engineers who practice or evaluation threat analyses. It presents an analytical constitution for combining info and data from a number of resources to generate estimates of the parameters of uncertainty distributions utilized in chance and reliability models.

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We will illustrate modelchecking with an exponential aleatory model here, with checks for more complicated models covered in Chap. 8. 467. 0 Fig. 0 Fig. 35). 4 shows the graphical posterior predictive check for these times produced by OpenBUGS. As the figure indicates, the exponential model cannot replicate the longest recovery time, suggesting that a more complex model, which allows a time-dependent recovery rate, may be needed. 3 Model Checking with Summary Statistics from the Posterior Predictive Distribution The frequentist approach to model checking typically involves comparing the observed value of a test statistic to percentiles of the (often approximate) sampling distribution for that statistic.

645, 2) ? 2 Developing a Prior from Limited Information In some cases, not enough information may be available to completely specify an informative prior distribution, as two pieces of information are typically needed. For example, in estimating a failure rate, perhaps only a single estimate is available. This section describes how to use such limited information to develop a distribution that encodes the available information with as much epistemic uncertainty as possible, thus reflecting the limited information available.

Credible intervals for either distribution can be found using the GAMMAINV() function built into modern spreadsheets, observing the earlier caution about parameterization of the gamma distribution. As an example of the exponential conjugate calculation, we will model a pump failing to operate (exponential model) and use a gamma prior to describe uncertainty in the pump failure rate. Assume we have collected 7 times to failure (in hours) for pumps: 55707, 255092, 56776, 111646, 11358772, 875209 and 68978.

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Bayesian inference for probabilistic risk assessment : a practitioner's guidebook by Dana Kelly, Curtis Smith

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